The XAU/USD pair is holding slightly above this summer’s key support level of 4000.0.

During the Asian session, the XAU/USD quotes are consolidating around 4014.01, reflecting the balance between demand for defensive assets and the strengthening of the US dollar: traders are refraining from opening large positions in anticipation of signals from macroeconomic data and further developments in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.

The probability of decline remains.

On the daily chart, the ascending third wave of a larger degree 3 of (5) has formed, and the development of the correction as the fourth wave 4 of (5) continues. Currently, the third wave c of 4 and the fifth wave (v) of c are forming. If the assumption is correct, the XAU/USD pair will decline to the area of 3715.00–3300.00. The critical stop loss level for this scenario is 4205.75.